Oxford Economics - World GDP: Forecast Revisions

The global economy has been much more resilient to the headwinds of high inflation and interest rates than anticipated six months ago. We’ve upgraded our forecast for world GDP growth this year to 2.5% from around 2% late last year. This would represent a soft landing for the global economy – no mean feat considering the aggressive central bank rate hikes in 2022 and 2023. However, this would still represent weak growth even by the standards of the 2010s. Although financial conditions have eased, past rises in interest rates continue to filter through to households and firms. Furthermore, fiscal policy at a global level will be relatively unsupportive this year, limiting scope for a sharp rebound. 

Global headline inflation is falling rapidly, although we think central banks will be measured in their response. A combination of still-high domestic price pressures, credibility concerns, and the role of the gradually loosening labour market will keep central banks cautious on policy easing. 

Global industrial activity, which was especially hard hit in 2023, should pick up as 2024 progresses and begin to rebuild some momentum. Pass-through from lower wholesale energy prices, a move past the peak of impacts from past rate hikes, and a trough in the de-stocking cycle should benefit manufacturing activity in the advanced economies, while supply-side stimulus and continued strength in green manufacturing will provide support to Chinese manufacturing. 

Global Valve & Actuator Market Outlook

The Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook 2023 is the seventh annual market report prepared by Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global economic forecasting firms. The report is commissioned by the British Valve and Actuator Association (BVAA).

Each October, the report is published with updated and revised data sets. BVAA members can use the online Power BI data tool, a business analytics platform developed by Microsoft. It permits easy visualisation of the data, as well as the export of data and charts to other applications.

If you are a BVAA member, you can access the 2023 report and Power BI data tool, via the Member Area of our website here: https://www.bvaa.org.uk/login-here.asp


Published: 3rd June 2024

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